Guo Zuorong: Mobile Memory Will Dominate the Market
www.ijjnews.com July 17 (Reporter_Ke Yaya Dong Yanjun Article and photo) On the Forum yesterday, Guo Zuorong, Research Assistant of TrandForce Science and Technology Limited Liability Company, analyzed 2016 global memory market and tendency in aspects of supplier side and demand side, price tendency and prediction.
In terms of supplier side market, Guo Zuorong pointed out that supply side of global memory industry increased 23.1% in 2016 and the growth rate has decreased from 25.5% in the beginning of the year to 23.1%, due to Samsung and SK slowed down the development of new craft technology in the second season and expansion of new products in the second half of the year. A the same time, as smart phone becomes a good seller, mobile memory achieved the first time of breaking the volume of 40% in this year; server memory's annual growth reached 38% because of the great need; standard memory has a negative growth of 8% due to the failure of effectively improving storage.
He analyzed that there is oligopoly in global mobile memory market as the Samsung occupies over 50%. In recent years, many smart phone memory factories transfer their productivity into mobile memory and they reached 39.2% in the first season, of which Samsung achieved 60.4% in avenue and SK Hynix has 26.9% Guo Zuorong predicted that the avenue will further improve as smart phone utilizes 4, 6 or even 8GB in the second half of year.
Meanwhile, he pointed out that although LPDDR3 (Mobile DDR) is the mainstream; LPDDR4 will improve the quota in 20016. Compared with LPDDR3, LPDDR4 has higher broadband and lower voltage. In the 2016 market of LPDDR4 mobile memory, Samsun has the largest quota of 58.4% and SK Hynix and Micron are similar. Meanwhile, Samsung's 20nm craft is mature; 18nm will be put into production in the second half of year, boasting the best quality.
"Global consumption of server memory increased 25.2% this year; its 2016 storage is growing. It is predicted that 20% rise and above can be maintained in next year." Guo Zuorong analyzed, from the service memory quarto of the memory factory of Samsung SK Hynix and Micron, the quota of server memory in the first season reached 28.1%, of which Samsung reached 51.4% in avenue, SK Hynix ranks the second with 28.1%.
"In demand side, mobile product is the best and server demand is the largest." He said the product of mobile memory occupies the largest quota of 41.5% in all memory products. Its demand comes from the increasing of phone products and memory storage. Although server memory quota increases to 24.6% due to improved storage, PC quota decreased sharp to 19.7% and even negatively grows. Meanwhile, the largest three memory factories' server memory increases year by year due to the strong demand. Samsung is the biggest producer in server memory suppliers. As for craft, 20/21nm dominates server memory.
Guo Zuorong predicted that the supply side will be in control but demand side will still be in low spirits in 2016 memory industry. In the second season, DRAM (dynamic random access memory, the commonest system memory) factory started improved new chip and technology transformation in the second half of year, and the demand side decreased to 20.3%. Meanwhile, he pointed out that the situation supply exceeding demand is worse than last year. But since capital will decrease next year, it will be a good year for memory factories. "China has abundant investment and excellent talents. We can catch up with international giant factories within 5 years."